The top three players on this list are right around franchise level players, and because of that these players will be very expensive on auction day. The others on the list will give very good production, but are clearly a level below. There are not any major stolen threats on the list though Gonzalez does steal some bases.
1) Carlos Gonzalez, Colorado Rockies
Gonzalez is a "five-tool" player. He exploded last year (.336/.376/.598 over 636 PAs) offensively and for a three month stretch it was a hot debate over who was the best hitter in MLB, Gonzalez or Josh Hamilton. The MVP voters took notice and he finished third NL MVP voting. He has excellent power (last two seasons with .525+ slugging percentage) and good speed (42 steals, 12 caught with 16 triples over the last two seasons). However, Gonzalez did most of his damage at Coors Field (.380/.425/.737) it all counted the same, but those owners that submit weekly lineups should take note. The other minor complaint is that Gonzalez did not walk enough (6.92% of his PAs) last year though his strikeout rate (21.23%) was in line with other power hitters. His BABIP (.384) was definitely a gift from the BABIP fairy, and it will see a downward correction for the 2011 season. Gonzalez is still a franchise level player, but owners should not expect a repeat of his 2010 season. A 2011 season with a .285+ average, 25+ homers, 80+ runs, 85+ RBIs and 20+ steals is certainly possible for Gonzalez. At auction, expect him to be in the $35-37 range.
2) Ryan Braun, Milwaukee Brewers
Braun is nominally a left fielder, but is a fearsome slugger at the plate. He was very good offensively (.304/.365/.501 over 684 PAs) even though for him it was a down year in 2010. He has tremendous power (three of the last four season with a .550+ slugging percentage), and some surprising speed (14-20 stolen bases his four years in the majors). This alone would make him a valuable fantasy player, but Braun also hits for a high average (three of his four seasons with a .300+ average). The combination makes him a franchise player in any fantasy format. In some auctions he might go for more than Gonzalez. He had a good walk rate (8.19% of his PAs) last year, and the strikeout rate (15.35%) was very good too. It is quite possible that his power dip last season was because he was merely good against left handers (.271/.341/.445) instead consistently destroying them. A 2011 season with a .300+ average, 30+ homers, 100+ RBIs, 100+ runs and 16-18 steals is attainable for Braun. At auction expect a fierce bidding war for Braun to end in the $34-36 range.
3) Matt Holliday, St. Louis Cardinals
Holliday had another elite level season (.312/.390/.532 over 675 PAs) in 2010. He brings excellent power (.500+ slugging percentage the last six seasons), ability to drive in runs (100+ RBIs four of the last five seasons) and hitting a high average (.300+ batting average the last six seasons) to the table. His walk rate was outstanding (10.22% of his PAs) which is made it three straight years with a walk rate higher than 10%. In addition, his strikeout rate fell for the third (13.78%) straight year. This bodes well for the 31-year-old Holliday, who looks ready for a monster year, especially if Lance Berkman can provide solid protection for Holliday. A 2011 season with a .305+ average, 30+ homers, 100+ RBIs and 8-10 steals is very realistic for Holliday. At auction, expect him to go for $33-35.
4) Carlos Lee, Houston Astros
There is no doubt some puzzling looks on fantasy owners faces as they see Carlos Lee on this list. More than a few are probably wondering what I am smoking, and where they can get some of that. No one can deny that Lee put up below average numbers (.246/.291/.417 over 649 PAs) that hurt a lot of fantasy teams last year. However, he still mashed 24 homers (11 straight years with 24+ homers) and his strikeout rate (9.1% of his PAs) remained very low last season. The main culprit was a very low (.238) BABIP average that was so low it is guaranteed to rebound at least 25 points. Even at 35 years old, Lee seems ready to have a bounce back year. However, outside of Bourn and Pence there is not much help in the Astros lineup and that will depress Lee's numbers a bit. A 2011 season with a .265+ average, 25+ homers and 95+ RBIs seems about right for Lee. At auction, expect him to garner $23-25.
5) Raul Ibanez, Philadelphia Phillies
Ibanez is one of those players that are constantly tweaking with their stance, and watching hours of video looking for that one little thing that will make him hit better. His overall 2010 offensive numbers were above average (.275/.349/.444 over 636 PAs), but it was a tale of two halves. In the first half, his dismal production (.243/.326/.397) fueled many Philadelphia fans to call for his outright release; after the All Star break though Ibanez caught fire (.309/.375/.494) and became a very good hitter again. The question now is at 39 years old what kind of season Ibanez will have for the 2011 season. His walk rate was excellent (10.69% of his PAs) last year, and his strikeout rate was solid (16.98%) as well. That is good, because it is an indication that he does not have to cheat to be productive offensively. Ibanez will get every opportunity to play out of a slump, because with Jayson Werth in Washington this year; Domonic Brown will get the majority of starts in RF (when he comes back from his injury) and there is not a better in house option for the Phillies. A 2011 season with a .265+ average, 80+ runs, 19-21 homers and 85+ RBIs seems reasonable expectation for Ibanez. At auction he should be around $20-22.
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