If an owner needs to take a player off of this list then that owner needs to understand there is a lot of risk on this list. Questions about playing time, and if their bats are going to be enough offensively abound here. It is an eclectic mix of older players; young vets and a prospect thrown in for good measure.
1) Pat Burrell, San Francisco Giants
Burrell resurrected his career with a very good stint in San Francisco (.266/.364/.509 over 341 PAs) after Tampa Bay released him earlier in the 2010 season. He does bring consistent power (20+ homers nine of his 11 seasons in the majors) and the ability to drive in runs (84+ RBIs five of the last seven seasons). Burrell is another ballplayer that works a lot better in OBP (.362 career) leagues than in leagues that use batting average (.254 career). He is an extremely patient hitter at the plate and that shows up in an outstanding walk rate (14.27% of his career PAs). Like most patient sluggers, Burrell has a high strikeout rate (23.76%) for his career. Even with all of those positives Burrell does not control his playing time. When Brandon Belt is ready (and that time might be sooner than later) he will break into the every day lineup, and that likely will push Aubrey Huff to an outfield corner. The outfield corner spot is likely to be LF as well; otherwise the Giants would have two defensively challenged outfield corners in the lineup. A 2011 season with a .250+ average, 20+ homers, 70+ RBIs and 60+ runs is just right for Burrell. At auction expect him to be in the $15-17 range in most leagues, but in leagues with OBP he should be $19-21.
2) Alfonso Soriano, Chicago Cubs
Soriano is now a shadow of the player the Cubs signed, as a free agent, four years ago. Unfortunately, that shadow played the most games as a Cub (147) last season. The power is still there as his 24 homers in 2010 marked the ninth consecutive season with at least 20+ homers. However, the speed that made Soriano attractive to major league and fantasy teams alike has disappeared like a desert mirage (5 steals in 2010). The last two seasons his batting average has failed to reach .260. Even with all of these negatives Soriano still produced an above average offensive season (.258/.322/.496 over 548 PAs) last year. Teams that need power late in the auction will turn towards Soriano. A 2011 season with a .250+ average, 22-24 homers, 70+ runs and 80+ RBIs should be attainable for him. At auction, he should be in the $13-15 range.
3) Martin Prado, Atlanta Braves
Prado is also eligible to play at 2b and 3b this season, and he has a lot more value there than in the outfield. However, he will be in the Braves starting left fielder this year, and he brings some ability in that role. One thing he does well is hit for a high average (.307 career hitter) and every fantasy team needs at least a couple guys that are capable of that (unless an owner decides to punt that category but that is always a risky strategy before the season). The real positive he brings to the table is scoring a lot of runs. Atlanta's lineup looks a lot better with the addition of Dan Uggla and that will give Prado a lot of chances to score runs at the top of the Braves lineup. He has some middling power as well. Add it all up and it is a combination of skills that plays much better at 2b or MI for fantasy players. However, he can contribute as well in a fourth outfielder on a fantasy team. If an owner plans on drafting him as an outfielder he should be in the $12-14 range. A 2011 season with a .300+ average, 85+ runs and 12-14 homers is about right for Prado.
4) Jonny Gomes, Cincinnati Reds
Gomes was merely average last season (.266/.327/.431 over 571 PAs) and some red flags appeared as well. His walk rate dipped significantly in 2010 and came to rest on a solid level (6.83% of his PAs), but his strikeout rate was (21.54%) okay last season. The real warning flag was that his ISO (isolated power) tailed off from an outstanding .274 in 2009 down to a mediocre .165 in 2010. That is not good for guy that makes his living being a power hitter while playing shaky left field defense. Even with that, Gomes is the Reds starting left fielder and plays in a park that sees a lot of offense. A 2011 season with a .255+ average, 18-20 homers and 65+ RBIs is about what Gomes should be able to accomplish. Gomes should be in the $9-11 range at auction.
5) Jose Tabata, Pittsburgh Pirates
Tabata is all about upside these days. He was an average offensive player in 2010 (.299/.346/.400 over 441 PAs). His walk rate (6.35% of his PAs) was decent in his rookie season, but the strikeout rate (12.93%) was very good. Tabata appears to have very little power, so he needs to steal bases to catch a fantasy owner's eye. Still, he is going to play every day and is 22 years old (though some around baseball think he is several years older) so there is a good chance for improvement. A 2011 season with a .280+ average, 65+ runs and 25+ steals is certainly possible for Tabata. At auction, he should be in the $8-10 range.
John Stroba - There are few that are more passionate about their writing than I am. I bring all that passion into the articles I am writing. Have been ...
