An owner that is not able to acquire a top player at the center-field position will find players with some questions that surround them. There is talent at this position, but there is risk as well.
1) Grady Sizemore, Cleveland Indians
Last season was a lost cause for Sizemore as he battled a sore back, and his season ended with a knee injury that required micro fracture surgery in the off-season. It was not a surprise that Sizemore put up lousy numbers (.211/.271/.289 over 140 PAs) in 2010. Right now, he is on track to make his regular season debut in early to mid April. He is not expected to play in a game until the last week of spring training. As a result he is going to be a real risk at auctions that take place before that date. The upside looks to be a 2011 season with a .260+ average, 18-20 homers, 70+ runs, 70+ RBIs and 15+ steals. Those are solid enough numbers, but are not numbers that an owner wants out of a top-two fantasy outfielder. On auction day, Sizemore is a real wildcard but he should be in the $16-18 range.
2) Adam Jones, Baltimore Orioles
Adam Jones has the talent to dominate the American League CF picture for several years. However, injuries have derailed his last couple of years and stunted his growth. Last year was a tale of two seasons for Jones yet again. He struggled through the end of May (.251/.274/.382) and then he was above average offensively the rest of the way (.302/.351/.476). The main reason Jones is such a streaky hitter is because he has no ability to control the strike zone. His walk rate (3.7% of his PAs) was pathetic last year, and the strikeout rate (19.16%) was decent. Jones had more doubles (25) than walks (23) in 2010. Until Jones fixes that large hole in his offensive games, he is a streaky hitter that might have a couple very good offensive seasons. If he can learn to control the strike zone, then there might be some legitimate all-star games for him. Even if he does struggle at the plate his glove is good enough for him to play every day. At 25 years old for the 2011 season, Jones still has a bit of time on his side. A .270+ average, 20+ homers and 70+ RBIs is about right for him. At auction he should be in the $14-16 range.
3) Denard Span, Minnesota Twins
After two productive years as the Twins leadoff man, Span was below average offensively (.264/.331/.348 over 705 PAs) last year. He steals bases at an above average rate (49 steals, 14 caught over the last two seasons), but he is not a guy that can carry the category all alone for a fantasy team. Span also scores a lot of runs with a notable batting average. His walk rate dipped in 2010, but it was still solid (8.51% of his PAs) and Minnesota was encouraged to see his strikeout rate drop (10.5%) as well last season. His BABIP (.289) dropped off significantly last year, so there is a good chance of it bouncing back for 2011. Span is 27 years old, right in the middle of his prime, for the 2011 season. A season with a .290+ average, 90+ runs and 20+ steals is doable. At auction he should go for $14-17.
4) Franklin Gutierrez, Seattle Mariners
Gutierrez was one of many Seattle players that significantly regressed during the 2010 campaign (.243/.303/.363 over 629 PAs). That was a below average offensive season. His walk rate was solid enough (7.95% of his PAs), but the strikeout rate was (21.78%) high for the kind of power Gutierrez has. On a closer look it appears that his 2009 season might have been a fluke gift from the BABIP (.323) fairy. The reality is that Gutierrez is a stop-gap player, and the hope is that he is a not a player that will hurt a fantasy team. A 2011 season with a .265+ average, 15+ homers, 15+ steals and 60+ RBIs is possible for him. At auction, he should be in the $8-11 range.
John Stroba - There are few that are more passionate about their writing than I am. I bring all that passion into the articles I am writing. Have been ...
